Namibia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2026, a slight upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the World Bank’s June forecasts, according to the lender’s latest Global Economic Prospects report released this month.
The World Bank said growth is forecast to accelerate further to 3.8% in 2027, as economic activity across Sub-Saharan Africa strengthens. Regional growth is projected to reach 4.3% in 2026.
Namibia’s outlook follows a period of relatively strong performance, with economic growth of 4.4% in 2023 and 4.0% in 2024. Growth in 2025 is estimated at a more moderate 3.1%, reflecting a temporary slowdown before the expected recovery in subsequent years.
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World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill said growth among commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies is expected to improve modestly over the 2026–27 period.
“Growth in commodity-exporting EMDEs is expected to accelerate modestly over 2026–27, to an average of 3.2%, up from 3% in 2025,” Gill said.
“The expected pickup reflects rising net exports among energy exporters in 2026 as oil production rises alongside the unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts.”
The World Bank’s forecast broadly aligns with recent domestic projections. The Bank of Namibia said in its December 2025 economic outlook update that growth in 2026 was expected to accelerate to 3.9%, following an estimated slowdown to 3.0% in 2025.
In October, the Ministry of Finance revised its growth outlook downward to an average of 3.6% for the 2025/26 period, from a previously projected average of 4.3%.
As a commodity-exporting economy, Namibia remains sensitive to global demand and industrial activity. The World Bank cautioned that global trade growth could weaken in 2026 as the effects of inventory stockpiling fade and tariffs weigh on trade flows. However, the report said domestic factors are expected to provide some buffer for economies in the region.
The World Bank attributed the broader improvement in Sub-Saharan Africa’s outlook to ongoing economic reforms in some large economies, which are expected to support private investment and foreign direct investment inflows.
A gradual easing of inflationary pressures is also expected to boost domestic demand, while solid domestic investment is projected to remain a key driver of growth through 2027.
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“Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to firm to 4.3% in 2026, supported by ongoing reforms in some large economies, solid domestic investment growth and a continued easing of inflation,” Gill said.
He added that fiscal consolidation efforts across the region are being driven by constrained fiscal space, elevated public debt and rising debt-servicing costs.
Despite the improved outlook, the report warned of downside risks, including escalating trade tensions, volatility in commodity prices and the need for many emerging markets to strengthen fiscal frameworks to manage debt pressures.
For Namibia, the World Bank said sustaining growth momentum will depend on navigating these global risks while continuing to advance domestic structural reforms and maintaining resilience amid shifting international trade conditions and market sentiment.