The global diamond industry is attempting to regain momentum after one of its most difficult periods in years, with Botswana positioning itself at the centre of a renewed campaign to restore consumer demand and protect the value of natural stones.
Minerals and Energy Minister Bogolo Kenewendo has indicated that the outlook for natural diamonds may be improving, citing stronger jewellery sales during the most recent festive season and renewed demand from manufacturing hubs. Kenewendo told legislators that markets are gradually returning to the natural diamond sector and that governments and industry stakeholders are investing heavily in joint marketing efforts designed to reignite consumer interest. The approach reflects a growing belief among producing nations that coordinated global promotion is necessary to counter competition from laboratory-grown stones, which have captured an increasing share of the jewellery market over the past decade.
The strategy forms part of a broader effort by Botswana and its partners to restore what the industry refers to as “category marketing”. This approach promotes diamonds as a product class rather than focusing solely on individual brands. The model once drove global demand through iconic advertising campaigns, but it faded after producers and retailers shifted toward brand-level marketing in the early 2010s. Industry analysts argue that the absence of coordinated messaging created space for synthetic diamonds to expand rapidly, often marketed at lower prices while using similar terminology to natural stones.
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Botswana has moved to address this challenge through regulatory and marketing initiatives aimed at reinforcing the distinction between natural and laboratory-created diamonds. Botswana worked with several governments last year to introduce clearer definitions in the jewellery market, ensuring that the term “diamonds” refers specifically to natural stones rather than synthetic alternatives. The effort included agreements with India and France to recognise the distinction formally, while Belgium has endorsed the use of gram-based weight classification only for natural diamonds, a move intended to protect long-standing industry standards.
The sector has also secured backing from the Gemological Institute of America, the organisation widely recognised as the global authority on gemstone grading. The institute agreed that the established “Four Cs” framework — cut, colour, clarity and carat — should remain associated exclusively with natural diamonds. Industry leaders believe maintaining this classification helps preserve the premium perception of natural stones and reduces consumer confusion in an increasingly complex marketplace.
Another major step has been the establishment of the Luanda Accord, a partnership between Botswana and several producing nations to fund a coordinated global marketing campaign for diamonds. Revenues from participating stakeholders will support industry-wide advertising and consumer education efforts. The initiative aims to revive demand by highlighting the rarity, origin and traceability of natural diamonds, while also ensuring transparency in how stones are marketed and sold.
Traceability has become a central focus as producing countries seek to strengthen the narrative around diamond provenance. Botswana has invested in systems that allow retailers and distributors to trace stones back to their source, enabling sellers to present a verified origin story to consumers. Officials believe this approach could help differentiate natural diamonds in a market where ethical sourcing and transparency increasingly influence purchasing decisions.
Despite these initiatives, the financial outlook for the industry remains fragile. According to Anglo American’s 2025 financial results, De Beers — the world’s largest diamond producer by value — reported a sharp deterioration in its performance. The company recorded Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation of negative $551 million in 2025, compared with a negative $25 million the previous year. The decline underscores the severity of the downturn that has affected global diamond markets since late 2023.
Anglo American, which owns the majority of De Beers, has also written down the value of its investment in the diamond producer for the third consecutive year. The company took a $2.3 billion impairment charge linked to the diamond business, reflecting weaker market conditions and slower-than-expected recovery in consumer demand.
Industry executives nevertheless report early signs that the market may be stabilising. Demand for larger natural diamonds has shown improvement in the United States, the world’s largest jewellery market, while India is emerging as a key growth driver due to its expanding middle class and rising jewellery consumption. At the same time, China — previously a major source of demand growth — has experienced softer sales as recycled diamonds increase supply and economic uncertainty weighs on consumer spending.
The broader economic implications are particularly significant for Botswana, where diamonds remain central to government revenue and economic growth. A slowdown in diamond sales since the third quarter of 2023 has contributed to contractions in the national economy and intensified fiscal pressure. Lower diamond exports have widened budget deficits, reduced government savings and increased liquidity constraints within the financial sector.
Kenewendo acknowledged the sector’s ongoing challenges while emphasising that diamonds remain a cornerstone of Botswana’s economic structure. The government continues to work with De Beers, the Okavango Diamond Company and other stakeholders to stabilise the industry and rebuild demand through coordinated policy and marketing efforts.
For the upcoming financial year, Botswana expects mineral revenues — including taxes, royalties and dividends — to remain broadly unchanged at approximately P12.2 billion. At that level, minerals will account for roughly 16% of total government revenue. This marks a sharp decline from the 2022–2023 financial year, when mineral revenues contributed about 46% during a period of exceptionally strong global demand for diamonds.