South Africa’s Minister of Electricity and Energy, Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, has revealed a comprehensive Integrated Resource Plan for 2025, designed to tackle the nation’s persistent electricity challenges and stimulate economic expansion. This initiative involves a substantial investment of R2.2 trillion, equivalent to roughly 30 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product, as part of a broad strategy to overhaul the energy sector.
The plan follows the recent Cabinet approval of a new energy roadmap, as outlined by the Minister in the Presidency, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni. According to the Department of Electricity and Energy, the strategy addresses how ongoing power outages have hindered economic progress, acting as a fundamental barrier to development and exacerbating unemployment. With load shedding now largely under control, the focus shifts to positioning energy as a driver of prosperity rather than a hindrance.
The IRP 2025 seeks to resolve supply shortages, foster economic advancement, and generate employment opportunities, with an aim to achieve 3 per cent GDP growth by 2030. The minister emphasised that no economy can thrive without reliable power, and industries are unlikely to invest in South Africa without assurances of high-quality, affordable electricity. This perspective aligns with broader economic principles, where stable energy supply is essential for attracting investment and realising national potential.
A significant aspect of the plan involves reshaping the energy composition, with renewable sources such as hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar expected to overtake coal for the first time in the country’s history. By 2039, the government intends to incorporate 105,000 megawatts of additional generation capacity, effectively more than doubling the current infrastructure managed by Eskom. Key additions include 11,270 megawatts of solar photovoltaic by 2030, 7,340 megawatts of wind power, 6,000 megawatts from gas-to-power initiatives, and 5,200 megawatts of new nuclear capacity.
At present, coal accounts for 58 per cent of installed capacity, followed by 10 per cent from rooftop photovoltaic, another 10 per cent from grid-connected solar photovoltaic, 8 per cent from wind, and 3 per cent from nuclear. The minister identified major hurdles, including a shortage of skilled workers and a weakened construction sector, but affirmed the government’s dedication to revitalising the energy framework and unlocking economic benefits.
This endeavour extends beyond mere electricity provision, serving as a solution to wider economic issues. It encompasses goals of expansion, industrialisation, skill development, and the revival of dormant sectors. The plan also prioritises energy security, the elimination of load shedding, and the provision of affordable power to all households, ensuring long-term reliability.
The minister linked human development directly to economic growth, noting that without consistent electricity, the nation cannot fulfil its aspirations for investment and progress. The strategy narrates a path to economic recovery, focusing not only on megawatts but on restoring South Africa’s financial footing.
In terms of environmental commitments, the plan pledges substantial cuts in emissions, aiming for around 160 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030, reducing further to 142 million tonnes by 2035. As reported by Argus Media, the IRP envisions Eskom’s coal fleet maintaining an energy availability factor of 66 to 68 per cent between 2025 and 2030, supporting a gradual phase-out of coal while managing emissions.
Eskom has demonstrated notable progress, with its energy availability factor improving from 48 per cent during the height of load shedding to approximately 70 per cent today, laying a solid groundwork for the transition. As stated by Eskom in its official response, the organisation welcomes the IRP 2025 as a vital roadmap for a balanced energy mix that promotes sustainability and economic inclusion, particularly in a context of high unemployment rates exceeding 30 per cent overall and over 50 per cent among young people.
The plan, valued at R2.23 trillion according to Moneyweb, will add more than double Eskom’s existing 50,230 megawatts of capacity by 2039. It ensures energy security to underpin at least 3 per cent economic growth from 2030, while revitalising the construction industry and advancing industrialisation. It also charts a course towards net-zero emissions by 2050.
Cabinet endorsed the IRP on 15 October, with gazetting anticipated on 24 October. The document delineates government policy on the scale and types of new power facilities. It calls for a sharp rise in renewables, diminishing coal’s share from 58 per cent to 27 per cent by 2039.
By 2030, additions include 11,270 megawatts of solar photovoltaic and 7,340 megawatts of wind, plus 6,000 megawatts of gas-to-power, 3,100 megawatts of storage, and 5,400 megawatts of distributed energy. Nuclear is excluded in the short term due to extended lead times, and no new coal is planned.
Looking to 2039, the strategy incorporates 16,000 megawatts of gas-to-power and an extra 5,200 megawatts of nuclear to stabilise variable renewables. The possibility remains to expand nuclear to 10,000 megawatts, to be assessed in a dedicated Nuclear Industrialisation Plan for optimising the full nuclear value chain domestically.
By 2039, the energy mix is projected to comprise 27 per cent coal, 24 per cent wind, 18 per cent solar photovoltaic, and 11 per cent gas-to-power. Distributed generation, mainly rooftop solar, will contribute 8 per cent, nuclear 5 per cent, storage 4 per cent, and pumped storage 3 per cent, with minor inputs from other sources.
Funding will come from the private sector, kept off the government’s balance sheet, with the state acting as the purchaser of electricity, creating a contingent liability. The minister promised consistent procurement, potentially through large-scale bidding rounds.
Several policy tweaks have been made to the least-cost model, including assuming an Eskom energy availability factor above 60 per cent, setting a 50 per cent minimum load factor for initial gas-to-power projects to secure supply and infrastructure viability, constructing a clean coal demonstration plant by 2030, developing the Nuclear Industrialisation Plan, implementing the South African Renewable Energy Industrialisation Masterplan, and exploring mega bid windows for rapid industrialisation and employment.
The government is not forsaking coal, prioritising local conditions over global obligations, including leveraging coal resources while controlling emissions. Green hydrogen is omitted pending cost resolutions from scientific advancements, with potential future updates to the IRP.
Risks include delays in deploying 6,000 megawatts of gas-to-power by 2030, given dwindling regional gas and absent import infrastructure. Lead times for turbines span three to four years. Gas is vital to fill the baseload void from decommissioning 8,000 megawatts of ageing coal plants. Some 2,000 megawatts are already progressing, underscoring procurement urgency.
Existing open-cycle gas turbines, currently diesel-fuelled, could be converted to gas for quicker implementation. On nuclear, the minister noted a global resurgence as a clean alternative to fossils, with 14 major financial institutions, including the World Bank, open to funding such projects.
Affordability for consumers is crucial, though the IRP does not model price trajectories. Subsequent volumes, due by March next year, will cover system operations and transmission.
Additional insights reveal potential for up to 300,000 new jobs in the energy sector, as projected in analyses from Bloomberg. Environmentally, the draft IRP anticipates emissions of 168 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, slightly above the nationally determined contribution of 145 million tonnes, highlighting the need for stringent controls, according to the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy. This positions the plan as a cornerstone for South Africa’s just energy transition, blending economic revival with ecological responsibility.