Nedbank posted flat headline earnings for the first six months of its financial year, yet struck an optimistic note on the second half, pointing to growth momentum building across its divisions. The lender reported headline earnings of R8.4bn for the period to end-June, up just 0.1%, though it stressed this had exceeded its own start-of-year expectations.
The muted headline figure obscures a stronger operating story. Earnings were lifted by improving net interest income, robust growth in non-interest revenue and tight cost control, but were dragged back by a heavier impairment charge and the absence of associate income from Ecobank Transnational Incorporated, following the disposal of that stake in 2025. Stripping out the Ecobank base effect, headline earnings grew 12%, a figure that better reflects underlying trading and one management is keen to foreground.
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Headline earnings per share edged up 2% to 1,841c, and the group declared an interim dividend of 1,052c per share. Return on equity held at 15%, comfortably above the 14% cost of equity, while revenue rose 6% to R38.2bn. The credit-loss ratio widened to 95 basis points from 81 a year earlier, signalling that consumer and corporate stress, though contained, has not fully receded.
| Nedbank H1 2026 | Figure | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Headline earnings | R8.4bn | +0.1% |
| Headline earnings (ex-Ecobank) | — | +12% |
| HEPS | 1,841c | +2% |
| Interim dividend | 1,052c | — |
| Revenue | R38.2bn | +6% |
| Return on equity | 15% | above 14% CoE |
| Credit-loss ratio | 95bps | from 81bps |
Chief executive Jason Quinn tied the improving trajectory to the strategic reset undertaken in 2025, when the bank moved to become more client-centred, sharpen cross-selling, diversify earnings and lift productivity. Those decisions, he said, are now feeding through across the business clusters. Total clients grew 4% to 8-million, drawn from both retail customers and small and medium enterprises, and the group claimed market-share gains in home loans, credit cards, wholesale term loans and retail deposits.
The clearest expression of the diversification strategy is Nedbank’s push into East Africa. Its acquisition of a controlling interest in Kenya’s NCBA Group is advancing: the offer closed on 10 July with acceptances from holders of 79.9% of NCBA shares, enough to secure the targeted 66% stake, with remaining regulatory approvals expected late in the third quarter or early in the fourth. The move fits a broader pattern among South African banks chasing faster-growing markets to the north, where returns have outpaced a sluggish domestic economy, and follows Nedbank’s exit from Ecobank as it refocuses on East Africa and the SADC region.
Sustainable development finance rose to R213bn, or 21% of gross loans, underlining the bank’s positioning around green and transition lending as a growth and reputational lever.
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On the outlook, Nedbank expects South African GDP growth to improve modestly to about 1.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, aided by resilient consumer spending but held back by weak business confidence, subdued fixed investment and global energy-price risk. Inflation is seen averaging around 4% in 2026, above the Reserve Bank’s newly emphasised 3% target but within its tolerance band, and the bank anticipates a further 25-basis-point rise in the prime rate in September before cuts resume in 2027. Banking conditions should improve gradually, it said, with credit growth ending the year near 7%, though it flagged that risks remain skewed to the downside.
Nedbank expects return on equity to stay above 15% in 2026 and reaffirmed its target of about 17% by 2028, to be driven by stronger revenue growth and continued efficiency gains. The half-year numbers suggest the domestic recovery is real but slow, leaving the Kenyan expansion and cost discipline to carry much of the group’s growth ambition.