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    Home » Lucky Star Owner Takes a Hit as Anchovy Shortage and Rand Strength Bite
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    Lucky Star Owner Takes a Hit as Anchovy Shortage and Rand Strength Bite

    March 23, 20264 Mins Read
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    Oceana CEO Neville Brink
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    Oceana Group, Africa’s largest fishing company and owner of the Lucky Star brand, has reported lower operating profit for the five months to 22 February 2026, as a sharp contraction in fish landings and deteriorating global commodity prices compounded the structural pressures the group has been navigating since its full-year results in November 2025. Revenue for the period held broadly flat against the prior comparable period, but the earnings quality behind that number deteriorated materially, driven by an 80% drop in fishmeal and fish oil production volumes in its South African operations.

    The damage in the fishmeal and fish oil division was severe. Red-eye herring landings declined, no anchovy total allowable catch was set for the season, and cannery trimming volumes fell — a triple blow to a division already under strain. The near-total collapse in production volumes drove unit costs sharply higher and widened the operating loss in that segment relative to the prior period. Inventory levels ended the five months materially below where they started. Global pricing provided no relief: average realised fish oil prices in the group’s US Daybrook business fell approximately 45% year on year, negating a 7.7% increase in US sales volumes. The stronger rand further eroded the rand value of dollar-denominated revenue when translated back into local currency.

    The full-year results to September 2025 had already flagged the structural vulnerability: headline earnings per share dropped 38% as fish oil prices halved from record 2024 levels, following a recovery in Peruvian anchovy biomass that eased global supply pressures and dragged prices lower. Revenue for that full year decreased 0.7% to R10 billion, with operating profit down 23% to R1.25 billion — a result the group described as solid given the commodity price environment, supported by Lucky Star Foods generating R4.84 billion in revenue, up from R4.56 billion in 2024. 

    The five-month trading update signals that the pricing headwinds have not abated entering the new financial period. The group has said global prices for fishmeal and fish oil showed an upward trend in the second quarter of calendar 2026 as the market awaited clarity on Peru’s initial anchovy quota allocation for the season — a key variable that will determine whether the pricing recovery is sustained.

    The Lucky Star division, which accounts for the majority of Oceana’s revenue and commands approximately 60% of South Africa’s canned pilchard market, also faced constraints in the period. Local canned fish production volumes declined due to a limited global supply of frozen fish, which pushed processing costs per unit higher and left inventory levels well below the prior period. As detailed on Oceana Group’s investor relations page, Oceana is the world’s largest procurer of frozen pilchards and operates a global supply chain specifically designed to insulate Lucky Star from localised catch availability and migration patterns — a buffer that has softened, but not eliminated, the impact of the current supply contraction. Despite the production pressure, Lucky Star continued to benefit from strong consumer demand for affordable protein and favourable input cost dynamics, including lower freight costs and a stronger rand on imported raw materials, which partially offset the margin erosion from constrained supply.

    Performance across the wild-caught seafood segment was mixed. The hake business posted slightly weaker results, affected by lower catch volumes and the impact of a stronger rand on export revenue. The squid operation was more severely affected, with persistently low catch rates causing a sharp decline in volumes. Horse mackerel operations in both South Africa and Namibia showed improvement, supported by better catch rates, lower fuel costs, and firm demand — though currency movements and pricing pressure limited the net benefit. Lower fuel costs and hedging activity across the group provided some offset to the broader earnings pressure but were insufficient to compensate for the scale of the supply and pricing deterioration in the fishmeal and fish oil segment. Oceana’s interim results are scheduled for release in May 2026.

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