Rwanda’s economy expanded by 9.4% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, up from 7.8% in the same period of 2025, according to data released by the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) on Tuesday. Industry and services drove the performance.
The figures follow growth of 10% in the first quarter, which means the economy kept up a high pace through the first half of the year. Industry was the fastest-growing sector, expanding by 18%, up from 13% in the first quarter. The sector contributed 3.9 percentage points to overall growth, while services grew by 7% and agriculture by 4%.
NISR attributed the industrial performance to increased construction activity, which raised demand for locally manufactured building materials. Output of metal products, machinery and equipment rose by 51%.
At current market prices, GDP reached RWF7.17 trillion, about $4.89 billion (R79.7 billion), compared with RWF5.8 trillion a year earlier. That nominal increase of about 24% includes price rises. The 9.4% headline figure is measured at constant 2024 prices and is the gauge of real growth.
The expansion has come alongside a sharp rise in prices. NISR data show annual inflation reached 15.7% in August. The National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) said headline inflation climbed from 9.1% in the first quarter to 13.2% in the second, then reached 14.5% in July. That is well above the bank’s 2% to 8% target range. Energy inflation rose to 45.7%, driven by higher prices for fuels and cooking gas.
In August the BNR raised its policy rate by 50 basis points to 8.75%. This followed increases of 50 basis points in February and 100 basis points in May, taking cumulative tightening since November 2025 to 175 basis points. Governor Soraya Hakuziyaremye projected average inflation of 13.1% for 2026, slowing to about 7.9% in 2027. The bank expects inflation to return to its target range in the second half of 2027.
The BNR also flagged further risks, including the possible effect of the El Niño weather pattern on food prices and continued tensions in the Middle East.
The African Development Bank said in June that growth reached 9.4% in 2025, up from 7.2% in 2024, with domestic demand and public investment underpinning activity. It projected growth would slow to 7.0% in 2026, citing the Middle East conflict and insecurity in the Democratic Republic of Congo. That forecast was made before the first-half figures were published.
The lender also projected a fiscal deficit of 6.0% of GDP and a current account deficit of 14.9% of GDP in 2026. Both are driven partly by spending on major projects such as Bugesera International Airport. It noted that Rwanda’s ability to raise large-scale finance is tightening as fiscal space and concessional funding narrow.