South Africa is in active talks with energy companies to secure alternative fuel supplies after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz left the country’s petroleum import chain exposed, with the government warning that substantial price increases at the pump are now unavoidable.
Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe told delegates at the Southern Africa Oil and Gas Conference in Cape Town on Monday that the country relies on the Middle East for refined petroleum products and that disruption to those shipments represents the single biggest threat South Africa faces from the conflict involving Iran. Oman, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates are among the country’s top diesel suppliers.
Mantashe warned that the onset of the US-Iran conflict has pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel, and that countries relying heavily on imported refined petroleum products are particularly vulnerable to the resulting market shocks. He said the department is engaged with industry players to explore all available supply sources, with the explicit aim of maintaining fuel availability without immediately drawing on the country’s strategic reserves.
The structural exposure goes beyond the current conflict. South Africa has lost roughly half its domestic refining capacity over the past several years as plants closed due to accidents and insufficient investment. Because the country imports a growing share of its fuel already in refined form, it is directly exposed to both price spikes and physical supply disruptions at the source. The Basic Fuel Price mechanism means global oil price movements are passed through in full to domestic consumers, with rand weakness amplifying the effect. A gazette issued by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources effective 4 March already reflected a diesel increase of 62 to 65 cents per litre, attributed to higher shipping costs and Hormuz-related supply uncertainty — adjustments that analysts now describe as modest relative to what April’s price review is expected to deliver, with Brent crude having since climbed above $115 a barrel.
The Hormuz crisis traces to 28 February 2026, when coordinated US-Israeli strikes on Iran killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps effectively prohibited vessel passage through the strait, causing tanker traffic to fall sharply before dropping to near zero. The waterway normally carries approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil supply. Major shipping companies including Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd suspended transits, and over 150 tankers anchored outside the strait to avoid risk. With Houthi forces simultaneously resuming attacks on Red Sea shipping, both of the Middle East’s primary maritime corridors are now effectively blocked, forcing vessels to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope — adding up to two weeks to transit times and pushing freight rates sharply higher.
For now, fuel supply inside South Africa remains stable. The Fuel Industry Association of South Africa confirmed that supply requirements are currently being met and that individual companies are fulfilling customer orders normally. However, from 16 March the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, the industry association, oil companies and Transnet moved to daily coordination meetings to allow faster decision-making should the situation deteriorate. Mantashe also used the conference to argue for an acceleration of domestic energy development, pointing to offshore potential in the Outeniqua and Orange basins and pressing for the lifting of the moratorium on shale gas development, framing the current crisis as evidence that long-term energy security cannot rest on international supply chains alone.