The Democratic Republic of the Congo is on track to overtake Ethiopia to become sub-Saharan Africa’s fifth-largest economy in 2026, according to projections from the International Monetary Fund. The shift reflects diverging economic trajectories driven by commodity cycles, currency movements and structural reforms, while South Africa is expected to retain its position as the region’s biggest economy, ahead of Nigeria, Angola and Kenya.
IMF estimates place Congo’s gross domestic product at $123bn this year, marginally surpassing Ethiopia’s projected $122bn.
While the gap is narrow, the ranking change signals a broader rebalancing in the region, where resource-rich economies are benefiting from elevated global demand for critical minerals, particularly those linked to energy transition technologies.
Congo’s ascent is being underpinned by a sustained expansion in its mining sector. As the world’s leading producer of cobalt and a major supplier of copper, the country has become central to global supply chains for electric vehicles and battery storage. Rising demand for these inputs has supported export revenues, strengthened fiscal inflows and improved investor sentiment. The government has sought to capitalise on this momentum by deepening engagement with international partners, including US-based firms, while also attracting continued investment from established players such as Zijin Mining Group. Exploration activity is also intensifying, with companies such as KoBold Metals advancing large-scale lithium projects that could further expand the country’s resource base.
Improved market confidence has been reflected in Congo’s access to international capital. The country recently raised $1.25bn through its debut dollar-denominated bond issuance, taking advantage of a more stable global environment following a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions linked to the Strait of Hormuz. The successful issuance signals growing investor appetite for frontier-market debt, particularly where commodity exposure offers potential upside.
Currency dynamics have also played a role in reshaping the rankings. Congo’s franc has appreciated by more than 25% against the US dollar over the past year, boosting the dollar value of its economy. In contrast, Ethiopia’s birr has depreciated sharply, reflecting the impact of macroeconomic reforms and external pressures. The Ethiopian government liberalised its currency regime in 2024 after decades of controls, a move that has improved transparency but contributed to short-term volatility. Authorities have since intervened in the market, reportedly deploying more than $1.35bn to stabilise the currency.
Ethiopia’s economy continues to expand at a faster pace in real terms, with growth forecast at 9.2% compared with Congo’s 5.9%. However, structural challenges are weighing on its near-term outlook. Foreign exchange shortages, inflationary pressures and disruptions to fuel supply have constrained economic activity. The partial closure of key energy routes, including disruptions affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, has exacerbated supply constraints, prompting the government to introduce measures aimed at curbing consumption.
Across sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF expects overall growth of 4.3% in 2026, reflecting a gradual recovery tempered by global uncertainty, high borrowing costs and uneven domestic reforms. Within this context, the divergence between Congo and Ethiopia illustrates how external demand conditions and policy choices are shaping economic outcomes.
Congo’s rising position highlights the increasing importance of mineral-rich economies in the region’s growth profile, particularly as the global transition to cleaner energy drives demand for strategic resources. At the same time, Ethiopia’s experience underscores the complexity of economic reform, where liberalisation can unlock long-term gains but introduce short-term instability. The evolving rankings point to a shifting economic landscape in sub-Saharan Africa, where commodity cycles, capital flows and policy adjustments continue to redefine relative performance.