Africa’s largest crude refining facility, the Dangote refinery in Nigeria, has substantially increased its exports of gasoline and urea to neighbouring countries grappling with severe supply disruptions triggered by the ongoing conflict in Iran, owner Aliko Dangote confirmed during a facility tour on the outskirts of Lagos.
The refinery is currently operating at its maximum installed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day and has already shipped approximately 17 cargoes of gasoline to other African nations, with exports of urea fertiliser also rising sharply as buyers across the continent seek alternative supply sources. The owner assured that the facility has the capacity to supply most of West, Central, and East Africa, helping to cushion the full impact of the crisis both domestically and regionally.
The shift in export strategy marks a significant realignment for the $20bn Lekki-based plant, which has historically directed most of its urea output—up to three million metric tons annually—to markets in the United States and South America. The refinery received ten crude cargoes from the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) in March, double the average of about five cargoes monthly since late 2024, with six of those shipments priced in naira and four in dollars. Despite this improvement, the facility requires approximately 19 cargoes monthly to run optimally and continues to source supplementary crude from the United States and other African producers, exposing it to international price volatility.
Domestic fuel prices in Nigeria have climbed to record levels despite the refinery operating at full capacity, as global crude costs surge and the plant is forced to buy back Nigerian crude from international traders at a premium. A legal and regulatory analysis from Baker McKenzie notes that while increased local refining capacity theoretically reduces exposure to import markets, the naira-for-crude framework established in October 2024 has faced implementation challenges including inconsistent supply and competition from international oil companies that prefer to sell to traders rather than directly to the refinery. The refinery’s management has stated that upstream producers have failed to supply crude as required under the Petroleum Industry Act, forcing substantial procurement through international channels that charge additional premiums.
Two trade sources and a refinery official indicated that NNPC is allocating seven crude cargoes for May loading, up from five in previous months, suggesting a gradual but still insufficient increase in domestic supply. Meanwhile, the refinery’s emergence as a key continental supplier comes as Middle Eastern supply chains remain disrupted, with Dangote noting that fertiliser shipments have recently been redirected to African countries that were not previously major destinations. Fuel prices in oil-producing Nigeria have, however, reached unprecedented levels, as maximum output from the refinery has failed to fully offset the impact of elevated crude prices, with the owner expressing hope that securing more cargoes priced in local currency will help curb domestic fuel costs.