Miguel da Silva, Group Executive: Business Banking at TymeBank, examines the developments affecting South Africa’s SMEs as the country’s G20 presidency approaches its conclusion.
G20 events offer commercial and strategic opportunities
November marks the culmination of South Africa’s G20 presidency with a concentrated sequence of high-profile events. The Think20 Summit on 13–14 November, followed by the Social and B20 Summits from 18–20 November, and concluding with the G20 Leaders’ Summit on 22–23 November, are bringing thousands of international delegates to South Africa.
For SMEs in hospitality, accommodation, event management, catering, transport, and tourism, this represents revenue opportunities during a traditionally strong trading period. Beyond the immediate transactional benefits, these gatherings offer strategic networking opportunities and international visibility that could yield longer-term partnerships and export relationships. The B20 Summit specifically brings together business leaders and policymakers, creating a conducive environment for SMEs to engage with potential investors, partners, and customers.
MTBPS delivers inflation target shift and projects GDP uptick
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement on 12 November 2025, announcing a significant shift in monetary policy alongside mixed news for micro-enterprises. The Minister unveiled a new inflation target of 3% with a one percentage point tolerance band. For SMEs, lower inflation should translate into reduced borrowing costs and improved real disposable income for customers over time.
The Minister projected GDP growth of 1.2% for 2025, more than double 2024’s performance, strengthening to an average of 1.8% between 2026 and 2028, and announced that government debt will stabilise in 2025/26 at 77.9% of GDP, the first stabilisation since the 2008 financial crisis.
Substantial infrastructure investment is planned, and capital expenditure emerges as the fastest-growing spending category at 7.5% over the medium term. The new Procurement Payments Dashboard, launched with the MTBPS, provides greater transparency into government procurement, potentially creating opportunities for SMEs to better understand and access public-sector contracts.
Final interest rate decision of 2025 balances competing pressures
The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee announces its final interest rate decision of the year on 20 November. Having delivered rate cuts totalling 125 basis points over the past year, bringing the repo rate from 8.25% to 7.00% and the prime lending rate to 10.50%, the committee now faces a more complex decision-making environment given the new inflation target framework.
The uptick in inflation from 3.3% in August to 3.4% in September creates modest pressure that may prompt caution from Governor Kganyago and the committee. The transition to a lower inflation target adds another dimension to deliberations, as does global economic uncertainty and exchange-rate volatility.
For SMEs, the decision carries significant implications for working capital costs, expansion financing, and overall operational planning for 2026. Businesses should prepare contingency scenarios for both outcomes, recognising that the current cycle may be approaching its conclusion even if further modest cuts materialise.
Black Friday demands heightened vigilance
Black Friday on 28 November 2025 kicks off the peak retail trading period, with performance data from 2024 demonstrating the event’s economic significance. Retail sales were up nearly 20% on 2023, contributing to an estimated R88 billion boost to the broader economy.
But it’s not all sunshine – the surge in transaction volumes also heralds a spike in scams and fraudulent activity, which, if left unchecked, can cause significant reputational damage. SMEs should do what they can to tighten fraud-prevention measures, ensure payment systems are secure, train staff to identify suspicious transactions, and protect customers throughout the purchasing process.
Investment conferences deliver tangible outcomes
In the wake of the Western Cape Investment Summit, held from 5–7 November, Premier Alan Winde announced that commitments made at the summit were expected to create approximately 45 000 jobs, with 520 delegates conducting 1 668 meetings across sectors including green economy, energy, agribusinesses, manufacturing, and green hydrogen.
The summit yielded a new international partnership with the Paris Region focusing on technology, tourism, and creative industries, while showcasing over 200 investment-ready projects. For SMEs, a structured integration framework creates pathways to participate in larger investment projects flowing from these commitments.
The African Agri Investment Indaba from 23–26 November, also in Cape Town, will bring together over 900 stakeholders from Africa’s agricultural sector, with direct relevance for agribusiness SMEs and those providing services to the agricultural value chain. Let’s hope it sees the same success.
Tech festival showcases innovation opportunities
The Africa Tech Festival from 10–13 November has brought together the continent’s largest technology gathering through four integrated conferences: AfricaCom, AfricaTech, AfricaIgnite, and The AI Summit Cape Town. The festival’s Market Square zone specifically accommodates SMEs, providing access to emerging technologies, potential technology partners, and innovation trends that could transform business operations. For SMEs considering technology adoption or digital transformation initiatives, the concentrated expertise and vendor presence will make it easier to compare solutions and engage directly with implementation partners.
Key data releases inform planning
Key economic indicators through the month provide essential guidance for strategic planning. The Consumer Price Index for October, releasing around 19–20 November, provides crucial inflation data immediately ahead of the MPC decision. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index for Q4 2025, due around 26–28 November, is a good indicator of sentiment across key sectors. The Quarterly Labour Force Survey for Q3 2025, released 12 November, showed a slight reduction in unemployment, down 1.3 percentage points from Q2 to 31.9%.
The convergence of G20 commercial activity, fiscal policy announcements introducing a lower inflation target, demonstrated investment conference outcomes, technology-sector gatherings, and the commencement of peak retail trading creates opportunities and strategic decision points for South African SMEs. Businesses that actively engage with these developments, while maintaining operational discipline through the high-volume trading period, position themselves advantageously for 2026.