The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) welcomes S&P Global’s upgrades of South Africa’s sovereign credit ratings. The upgrades of our foreign currency long-term sovereign credit rating to ‘BB’ and local currency long-term sovereign credit rating to ‘BB+ with a positive outlook’ confirms that South Africa’s economic trajectory has turned.
“Credible policy, disciplined execution, and ongoing collaboration between government, business, and institutions are rebuilding the foundations of stability and long-term growth. When reforms take root, credibility strengthens, investment follows, and momentum begins to compound, ” says JSE Group CEO, Leila Fourie.
The Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) this week reflected the shift in South Africa’s economy. Debt is projected to stabilise at 77.9% of GDP. Growth is expected to rise toward 2 percent by 2028. Primary surpluses are forecast to grow from R68.5 billion this year to more than R220 billion by 2028/29. This marks a clear reversal from earlier fears of debt drifting toward 100 percent of GDP.
The adoption of a new 3% inflation target further deepens South Africa’s macroeconomic anchor. It aligns the country with global practice and should, over time, lower inflation expectations, create room for lower interest rates, and reduce borrowing costs across the economy. These forward-looking reforms strengthen the fiscal framework for the decade ahead.
“The upgrade recognises the compounding effect of institutional improvements with both government and business working together towards a common goal. South Africa’s exit from the FATF grey list builds confidence in the integrity of its financial systems. The partnership between financial sector leaders and the National Treasury is advancing reforms that make South Africa more competitive. Recent fiscal consolidation strengthens the conditions for these reforms to take hold. The JSE has been proud to help coordinate this effort and to lead the private sector drive to support the government’s reform agenda,” continues Fourie.
As a country, we still face real structural challenges, and we still have a great deal of work to do. Growth remains subdued, unemployment is too high, and the reform agenda requires consistent execution. But the tide is moving in the right direction.
Financial markets have been signaling this shift for some time. The FTSE/JSE Top 40 has risen by 55% in US dollar terms year to date, outperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets Index’s (30%), and other developed world indices (20%). The rand has strengthened, bond yields have fallen, foreign participation has increased, and the JSE’s total market capitalisation has increased by almost 30% (R5 trillion) this year. Investors have been ahead of the rating agencies, pricing in fiscal repair, institutional strengthening and the early results of structural reforms.
“As we prepare to host the G20 and B20 meetings, the upgrade sends a positive signal of progress and the potential for further upgrades as the country drives towards building fiscal credibility, growth & executing fiscal reform. It indicates that the reform path is credible, that institutions are strengthening and that the macroeconomic framework is sound. It supports South Africa’s position at a moment when the world has its eyes focused on South Africa,” concludes Fourie.