As South Africa heads towards the 2026 local government elections, Johannesburg finds itself at a critical juncture. Years of coalition instability, deteriorating infrastructure, and unreliable service delivery have left the country’s economic hub facing mounting pressure to restore governance credibility and reshape its economic trajectory.
These dynamics were unpacked in the latest PSG Think Big webinar, where award-winning journalist Alishia Seckam sat down with political strategist and independent pollster, Gareth van Onselen, to examine the upcoming municipal races and what the outcome could mean for the future of Johannesburg.
Van Onselen began by noting that while coalition instability has played a clear role in the city’s decline, deeper institutional and administrative issues are also at play. “The rapid change in governance in metros like Johannesburg does affect the ability of a particular governance regime to deliver the basics in a consistent way, but there are far more profound problems underpinning that kind of turmoil, which can be laid at the feet of more stable and longer-term administrations in the past.”
This disconnect is also reflected in voter priorities. According to van Onselen, voters tend to focus on visible service delivery failures, often overlooking the systemic issues that require long-term intervention. However, as infrastructure failures become more visible, there are signs that this dynamic may be shifting. “Water has stopped running, electricity has stopped working, and so there is more buy-in from the electorate, but it’s a real challenge to get South Africans to understand that some of the most fundamental changes that need to happen are not going to result in an immediate visual change.”
Despite this growing awareness, van Onselen was blunt in his assessment of the current political offering. “There is no real powerful sort of 10-year vision for Johannesburg,” he said, noting that the scale of the crisis makes long-term planning difficult. “The state of the crisis is so profound that you really need five years just to get the systems established and running properly before you can start long term vision.”
Having recently tracked the on-the-ground campaigns of major contenders, Van Onselen’s research highlights stark differences in approach. The DA’s campaign has been broad and highly visible, while ActionSA has taken a more targeted approach. “Having had a three to four-month lead on all the other candidates, Helen Zille has covered almost all of Joburg,” he said, noting that ActionSA has instead focused on areas where its electoral prospects are strongest.
These differences reflect broader strategic and resource constraints. “Action South Africa have done the sum that they have neither the resources nor the time to campaign everywhere. They need to maximise their returns, and they’ve essentially used the 2024 results to determine where their prospects are best and are going to focus on those areas – and that makes sense for a smaller party.”
Even so, van Onselen cautioned that campaign visibility does not necessarily translate into voter conversion. “I don’t think there is evidence of a profound shift between political parties,” he said. “Really, the fundamental battle in this election is the ability to be able to overcome apathy, low turnout, and get your existing supporters to the polls.”
This insight underscores a key tension in the race: success may depend less on winning new voters than on mobilising existing bases. “If the DA does have an exceptional election and achieves its goal of 500 000 voters, all it will have done is returned the bar to zero, reinvigorating its existing voter base to vote at the same level they did in 2016.”
Coalition dynamics are likely to further complicate the post-election landscape. Van Onselen described political fragmentation as one of the defining features of Johannesburg’s electoral environment. “Around 52 parties contested the 2021 election, and their support as a homogeneous whole has grown to around 43%,” he said.
While this fragmentation creates opportunities for smaller parties to exert influence, it also makes stable governance difficult. “It’s incredibly difficult – not necessarily to form a coalition, because everyone wants a seat at the table. However, given that people are not willing to compromise in a reasonable way on issues that are bigger than their tiny stake in the pie to maintain a coalition, things start to fall apart.”
Beyond election outcomes, the challenge of governing Johannesburg remains formidable. Van Onselen pointed to the complexity of reforming municipal finances, institutions and service delivery systems within a single term. “One of the fundamental challenges for a local government is to be able to define the budgetary cycle to allocate money in terms of its priorities. That is not something that can happen immediately.”
Equally critical is the quality of leadership and administration. “You need an executive council that is just as competent as the mayor and able to drive these changes in each portfolio. Your ability to find good administrators and heads of department are absolutely critical to this.”
Ultimately, van Onselen believes the success of any incoming administration will depend on its ability to address both immediate service delivery failures and deeper structural issues – all while navigating a fragmented and politically complex environment.
For voters, this raises difficult questions about expectations and timelines. While campaign promises may offer quick fixes, the reality is likely to be far more incremental, requiring sustained governance stability, institutional reform and long-term investment to restore Johannesburg’s economic potential.