BP’s underlying profit nearly quadrupled in the third quarter as the war involving Iran cut Middle East fuel exports and lifted refining margins elsewhere. Underlying replacement cost profit, the measure investors watch most closely, rose to $8.5bn (about R149bn) in the three months to September, from $2.2bn (about R38.5bn) a year earlier. Analysts had expected $6.2bn (about R108.5bn).
Profit attributable to shareholders rose to $4.7bn (about R82bn) from $1.16bn (about R20bn). Most of the gap between the two measures comes from $4.1bn (about R72bn) in pre-tax impairments, largely tied to BP’s energy transition businesses.
BP’s refining indicator margin averaged $46.70 a barrel (about R817), up from $29.60 (about R518) in the second quarter and $15.80 (about R277) a year earlier. Refined fuel production and exports in the Middle East remain heavily disrupted, so refineries outside the region have benefited from tight supply. Chief executive Meg O’Neill said BP’s refineries had been running close to capacity. Gas marketing and trading results were also much higher.
| Measure | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Underlying RC profit | $5.7bn (R100bn) | $8.5bn (R149bn) |
| Profit attributable to shareholders | $3.9bn (R68bn) | $4.7bn (R82bn) |
| Refining indicator margin, per barrel | $29.60 (R518) | $46.70 (R817) |
| Operating cash flow | $10.9bn (R191bn) | $14.8bn (R259bn) |
| Net debt | $22.3bn (R390bn) | $13.9bn (R243bn) |
Operating cash flow rose to $14.8bn (about R259bn), which let BP cut net debt by $8.4bn (about R147bn) in the quarter. O’Neill said the company had reached its net debt and structural cost-reduction targets. Upstream production held at about 2.2 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, and plant reliability improved to 95.3% from 92.4%.
Unlike its rivals, BP is not passing the windfall to shareholders through buybacks, which it suspended in February. O’Neill, who became chief executive on 1 April, said the dividend comes first, then investment, and buybacks only when appropriate. BP declared a quarterly dividend of 8.66 US cents a share. A day earlier, Shell reported adjusted earnings of $10.81bn (about R189bn) and announced a $5bn (about R87.5bn) buyback, and TotalEnergies also raised its payouts. BP shares rose 0.3% in early London trading.
BP is reshaping its portfolio ahead of a strategy update on 15 December. It has completed the sale of the Gelsenkirchen refinery in Germany and agreed to sell its Austrian retail business. It plans to put its North Sea assets and its Archaea unit up for sale, and expects the Castrol disposal to free up about $6bn (about R105bn). BP raised its full-year estimate for divestment proceeds to about $8bn (about R140bn).
BP expects supply disruption in the Middle East to last into 2027 and refining margins to stay high in the fourth quarter. It guided fourth-quarter production at 2.09 million to 2.23 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, citing the conflict among other factors.
The profits have drawn criticism. Campaign group Global Witness said BP’s results take the combined 2026 profits of Europe’s six largest oil companies to $89bn (about R1.56-trillion). The UK budget on 28 October left taxes on oil and gas companies unchanged.