Standard Bank Group has reaffirmed its full-year guidance for 2025, signalling confidence in sustained performance despite a complex global landscape. In a voluntary trading update covering the 10 months to the end of October, the Africa-focused financial services powerhouse highlighted robust trends mirroring those from the first half of the year. This comes at a time when the South African banking sector, which accounts for about 85 per cent of total industry assets according to PwC’s Major Banks Analysis for September 2025, has seen aggregate gross loans and advances expand by 6.4 per cent in the first half of the year compared with the prior period.
Banking revenue rose by mid-to-high single digits over the 10-month stretch, propelled by expansion in the loan book and vigorous deal-making within the investment banking arm. Net interest income benefited from this volume growth, though it faced some drag from the tailwinds of falling average interest rates, which eroded the endowment effect. Meanwhile, non-interest revenue held strong, buoyed by an expanding and more active client roster that drove healthy increases in fee and commission earnings. Heightened market turbulence and geopolitical jitters further fuelled trading revenues, providing a welcome offset to these pressures.
Cost management remained a bright spot, with expenses tied to heightened activity rising modestly but staying firmly in check overall. As a result, banking revenue growth outpaced cost increases, fostering efficiency gains. The group’s credit loss ratio hovered around the midpoint of its through-the-cycle target band of 70 to 100 basis points, reflecting prudent risk controls in an environment where non-performing loans across South African major banks ticked up just 3.4 per cent year on year to comprise 5.6 per cent of gross loans, as detailed in the PwC report.
The insurance and asset management divisions continued to shine, posting higher earnings than the previous year. In South Africa’s retail life insurance segment, better policy retention and refined risk profiles lifted results, while short-term insurance benefited from a cleaner claims landscape, unmarred by major weather catastrophes so far this year. This performance underscores the group’s diversified footprint, which spans 20 African countries and supports a client base exceeding 18 million active consumers, per National Credit Regulator data cited in the PwC analysis.
Globally, economic activity has proven surprisingly sturdy in 2025, with inflation cooling and interest rates easing across key markets, even as trade policies and geopolitical tensions cast long shadows. In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected at 3.8 per cent for the year, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest outlook, though sovereign strains persist in nations like Malawi and have intensified in Mozambique. Reforms in Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana have injected some stability, aiding cross-border operations for institutions like Standard Bank.
Closer to home in South Africa, the picture is more nuanced. Inflation and borrowing costs have moderated, yet real GDP expansion has lagged, with forecasts now clustered around 1.3 per cent for 2025 as per the OECD Economic Outlook Volume 2025 Issue 1, down from earlier hopes amid logistics bottlenecks and subdued confidence. That said, sentiment indicators are ticking upwards, hinting at a tentative recovery that could bolster lending and investment flows.
Looking ahead to December’s year-end, Standard Bank anticipates banking revenue to climb mid-to-high single digits in South African rand terms. This trajectory should keep pace with or exceed operating expense growth, delivering a cost-to-income ratio that is flat or slightly improved from 2024 levels. Return on equity is set to nestle comfortably within the 17 to 20 per cent target corridor, a benchmark the group has consistently met through the first five months of the year, as noted in its May trading update.
Full-year results will roll out on 12 March 2026, accompanied by fresh guidance for the following year. Investors can also look forward to a capital markets day on 26 March, where executives will unpack the pillars of the group’s 2028 ambitions, including headline earnings per share growth of 8 to 12 per cent and a return on equity stretching to 18 to 22 per cent. With shares trading around 24,819 rand as of early September—yielding 6.35 per cent on dividends, per Investing.com data—and a common equity tier 1 ratio of 13.6 per cent at quarter-end, Standard Bank enters this phase with solid buffers against volatility.
This steady reaffirmation not only reflects the group’s operational grit but also its pivotal role in Africa’s financial ecosystem, where commercial banks number over 30 in hubs like Côte d’Ivoire and continue to drive inclusion amid regulatory pushes for higher capital thresholds. As the continent’s largest lender by assets, Standard Bank’s path forward could well signal broader sector reinvention, blending resilience with bold bets on digital innovation and sustainable finance to navigate 2025’s mixed tides.