Three different speeds, driven by three different factors: this is how the global economy is approaching 2027, with uneven and volatile growth. This is one of the key findings of Allianz Trade’s Sector Atlas 2026.
According to the report by the world’s leading trade credit insurance provider, global growth is expected to slow to +2.5% in 2026 before rebounding to +2.9% in 2027, supported primarily by investments in artificial intelligence, while the effects of geopolitical tensions, trade tensions and supply chain fragmentation continue to weigh on the outlook.
The main growth engine remains the technology sector linked to AI. Infrastructure investments by major digital players could reach USD 725 billion in 2026 and exceed USD 1 trillion in 2027, driving global semiconductor sales towards USD 1.5 trillion. This “supercycle” is creating a clear divide between AI winners and sectors that are more exposed to high costs and weak demand.
Allianz Trade’s Sector Atlas 2026 analyses the evolution of corporate risk across 17 economic sectors and 70 countries. The study relies on a proprietary methodology that assesses companies’ non-payment risk across four dimensions: demand, profitability, liquidity, and the operating and regulatory environment.
The three most resilient sectors: Pharmaceuticals, Software and IT, and Energy
Allianz Trade assigns sector risk ratings (Low, Medium, Sensitive and High). No major industrial sector currently falls into the “High Risk” category. The three most resilient sectors are Pharmaceuticals – capable of generating profits thanks to population ageing and innovations stemming from AI applications –, Software and IT – driven by ongoing digitalisation –, and Energy – supported by structurally rising electricity demand linked to the expansion of data centres, as well as by the cash flows generated by oil and gas prices.
The three weakest sectors: Automotive, Fashion and Chemicals
The three sectors facing the greatest challenges are Automotive – due to pressure from Chinese manufacturers that is squeezing prices and margins –, Textiles/Fashion – as a result of rising costs and weak consumer demand –, and Chemicals, particularly in Europe, where the sector is disadvantaged by the energy cost gap compared with other regions, especially the United States.
In South Africa, opportunities in energy, mining and digitalisation contrast with pressures on trade-exposed sectors.
“South Africa exemplifies many of the trends highlighted in the Sector Atlas 2026. Sectors linked to structural growth drivers such as energy, technology, infrastructure development and critical minerals are better positioned to navigate an increasingly fragmented global economy. The country’s mining value chain, particularly producers linked to metals that support electrification, renewable energy infrastructure and digital technologies, remains strategically important, while ongoing investment in energy infrastructure and digital transformation creates new opportunities for growth,” says Luke Morawitz, Country Manager at Allianz Trade South Africa.
“At the same time, South African businesses are operating in a more complex environment characterised by slower global growth, geopolitical uncertainty and higher competitive pressures. Companies in sectors such as automotive manufacturing, textiles and certain consumer-facing industries continue to face weak international demand, rising input costs and shifting global trade dynamics. These industries will need to focus on operational efficiency, innovation and market diversification to remain competitive.”
“From a corporate risk perspective, the divergence between sectors is becoming increasingly pronounced. Businesses serving long-term structural themes such as energy security, digitalisation, infrastructure and critical minerals are generally proving more resilient, while sectors exposed to cyclical demand fluctuations and margin compression face a more challenging outlook. The ability of South African companies to invest in productivity, embrace technology and strengthen their position within regional and global value chains will be critical to sustaining growth and competitiveness over the medium term,” concludes Morawitz.