South Africa’s online retail market is on track to exceed R150 billion and account for 12% of total retail turnover by 2027. These numbers are compelling.
But the more interesting story lies beneath them – in the behaviours, platforms, payment habits and tensions that are actually shaping how South Africans shop and spend online right now.
Jason Sive, CEO of Mobicred (one of South Africa’s leading online credit platforms) and eCommerce Executive at RCS, identifies the nine factors that matter most in 2026:
- South Africa will follow the global trajectory – on its own timeline
More mature markets like the UK have seen eCommerce penetration reach upwards of 20% of retail, and South Africa will follow a similar path. By 2024, an estimated 15 million South African consumers had access to the internet and approximately 90% of households owned a smartphone. As first-time users enter the eCommerce ecosystem and have positive experiences, trust builds and online spending becomes a consistent part of everyday life.
One structural factor that will slow this relative to other markets is South Africa’s deeply ingrained mall culture. With one of the highest numbers of shopping malls per capita globally, physical retail will remain a meaningful part of the ecosystem for longer than elsewhere. The two channels will coexist rather than one displacing the other. Retailers that understand this will plan accordingly.
- On-demand groceries are a gateway to broader online retail
The widespread adoption of on-demand grocery platforms such as Checkers Sixty60, Pick n Pay asap! and Woolworths Dash have been one of the most significant behavioural shifts in recent years. For many consumers, the first time they transact online is through one of these platforms, which often becomes the transition into broader online retail. A consumer who trusts ordering groceries digitally becomes far more willing to buy clothing, electronics or footwear the same way.
At the same time, grocery delivery has reshaped expectations. Customers now expect faster delivery across all categories, even though that is not always realistic.
- International players are shaking up the market
Growth in eCommerce is not only being driven by local retailers. International players have made a significant impact on the South African market. They’re part of the overall spend of eCommerce, notwithstanding that they may exist outside of South Africa
By intensifying competition, the entry of these global platforms has increased pressure on local retailers, particularly in terms of pricing and margins, which ultimately benefits the end customer.
- Social and conversational commerce are reshaping the path to purchase
Shopping via WhatsApp, Instagram and Facebook is growing massively as people spend increasingly more time on these platforms. Retailers that are doing well in this space are very deliberate about how they present their products. They focus on specific customer segments and expose the right products through social platforms, allowing customers to move almost seamlessly from discovery to purchase.
In many cases, the customer completes most of the journey within the social platform, only moving to a website at the final checkout stage.
“The customer probably doesn’t even realise they’ve left the platform they started on. The experience has become that seamless.”
The fact that customers can now interact with a retailer via WhatsApp, requesting specific products and then clicking straight through to the retailer’s checkout point, shows just how seamless this area of eCommerce is becoming.
- Cash is not disappearing, but it is evolving
In many parts of the economy, particularly in the informal sector, cash is still king. This includes spaza shops, taxis, street vendors and other everyday transactions. In fact, there has been growth in cash withdrawals in recent years.
At the same time, however, there is a rise in digital transaction volumes. While digital is not displacing cash in everyday transactions, digital solutions are being layered into these environments. For example, QR codes enable digital tipping and payments in situations where cash was previously the only option. This is creating a more hybrid model where cash and digital coexist.
- BNPL has a role, but not without scrutiny
Buy now pay later (BNPL) has become one of the fastest-growing payment options, largely because it offers customers access to credit with minimal friction. For the retailer, however, it is worth noting that BNPL is typically the most expensive payment method to accept.
The more pressing concern is affordability visibility. Lenders currently have no way of knowing whether a customer has zero, one or multiple BNPL obligations, creating a significant blind spot in credit assessment.
“BNPL is credit. You are providing a delayed payment obligation to a customer. Many first-world countries have started to regulate it, and South Africa will need to follow. You cannot have a situation where lenders have no visibility of a customer’s full credit obligations.”
- Online gambling is a growing and largely unaddressed risk
The growth in online gaming is an area of grave concern, particularly where customers who should not be spending their income on gambling, are increasingly participating. The environment is largely unregulated, and there is a need for greater oversight.
“We know how many of our customers are gambling and gaming monthly, and most of the time, those are the customers who cannot afford to be. The online gambling model is self-reinforcing – increased revenue drives more advertising, which drives more participation, which drives more revenue. Without intervention, that cycle does not stop.”
Sive draws a direct parallel with alcohol advertising regulation and is particularly direct on sports sponsorship: individuals representing national sports teams should not be permitted to promote gambling products. That, he argues, should be a clear regulatory boundary.
- Building trust in digital payments remains a balancing act
As more first-time users enter the eCommerce ecosystem, building trust is paramount.
These customers are often more susceptible to fraud, so there is a constant need to balance security with convenience. Too much friction can cause customers to abandon transactions, but too little exposes them to risk.
In many cases, customers have welcomed additional layers of security, such as biometrics, because they understand that these measures are there to protect them.
Financial service providers carry a responsibility to educate customers on safe online behaviour: password hygiene, one-time pin security and recognising phishing attempts.
- Mobile-first is the baseline – the best companies treat it as a discipline, not a feature
The Mobicred platform, like most digital commerce platforms in South Africa, is predominantly accessed on mobile. Designing genuinely well for that reality requires a specific mindset, one that treats assumptions about customer behaviour as hypotheses to be tested rather than facts to be acted on.
“There is a very direct correlation between failure and innovation. The more tests you run, the more times you fail, and the more you learn. The companies that do this well are those that build the ability to test constantly and treat every assumption as something to be verified.”
One final opportunity Sive highlights is embedded finance. The Mobicred and Takealot partnership demonstrates the model well: the Takealot customer’s trust in the brand extends automatically to the credit product, making adoption seamless and the customer relationship stickier. As more retailers and platforms explore embedded finance, the lesson is consistent – the financial product must feel native to the experience, not bolted on to it.
Written by Jason Sive, CEO of Mobicred and RCS eCommerce Executive