South Africa’s FMCG market is still growing, but opportunities are becoming more fragmented as financially constrained shoppers change where, how and what they buy, while retailers and brands increasingly compete beyond their traditional channels.
That was one of the clearest themes to emerge from the 2026 Trade Intelligence (Ti) Retail Conference, held in partnership with Nedbank in Johannesburg on 3 September. The conference brought together leaders from across retail, FMCG, technology and financial services to explore the changing trading environment and where businesses can still find growth opportunities.
The starting point is a consumer environment that remains challenging.
According to Nicky Weimar, Chief Economist at Nedbank, consumer spending and retail remain in positive territory, but momentum has weakened during 2026. “We still have growth. We still have a growing industry. We still have growing consumer spending. But we’ve seen a very clear loss of momentum.“
Trade Intelligence’s own market view points to a similar dynamic within FMCG. Ti estimates that the market grew +6.2% in 2025 against food inflation of +4.2%, suggesting underlying growth closer to +2%. Growth is also not occurring uniformly across sectors.
“People are often looking for the big untapped market or the big growth opportunity,” said Andrea Slabber, Insights Lead at Trade Intelligence. “But what we are increasingly seeing are smaller pockets of growth, which require businesses to look much more closely at where opportunities exist.“
Channel blurring is reshaping both growth opportunities and competition
One of the clearest places these opportunities are emerging is between traditional channels.
Over the past decade, the six major corporate retail groups have expanded their collective store footprint by around 4,000 stores to more than 11,000, with retailers increasingly pursuing growth beyond grocery through categories and formats such as health and beauty, clothing and pets. At the same time, distinctions between supermarkets, discounters, e-commerce, wholesale and specialist FMCG channels are becoming less clear from a shopper’s perspective.
The same movement is occurring at category level. Quick-service restaurant brands are extending into at-home consumption through retail products, while supermarkets continue to strengthen their ready-to-eat and foodservice propositions. Health, wellness and beauty products are also appearing in convenience, out-of-home and other non-traditional retail environments.
But channel blurring creates a competitive threat as well as a growth opportunity.
“While you’re spotting growth somewhere, you’re actually biting into someone else’s growth and someone is probably looking at your space to grab a bit of yours,” said Nicola Allen, Senior Analyst at Trade Intelligence.
This is also evident in business-to-business (B2B) sales, where consumer e-commerce expectations are influencing how business customers want to buy. Mark Cotton, Head of B2B Ecommerce at Shoprite Group, said the B2B and B2C (business-to-consumer) worlds are “moving closer together“, while stressing that wholesale customers still have distinct requirements around volumes, service and relationships.
Convenience retailers are facing a similar shift. Domnick Sipho Nkhatu, Head of Convenience at bp, described the emergence of the “Uber customer” who increasingly expects products and services immediately. “The future is now. The Uber customer has arrived. Believe you me, they don’t want it tomorrow. They want it now.“
Growth now requires greater precision
For businesses pursuing these new opportunities, simply entering another channel or adding another service is not enough.
The need for greater precision surfaced repeatedly throughout the conference. In convenience, retailers discussed segmenting stores and promotions according to the communities and missions they serve. In informal trade, speakers highlighted how product demand and purchasing rhythms can vary between locations and at different times in the month. In B2B, the challenge becomes more complex still, with the buyer, business owner, chef and end consumer potentially having different priorities.
Data can help businesses identify those opportunities more precisely, but speakers cautioned against treating technology or data as an end in itself. Vincent Viviers, E-Commerce, Innovation and Digital Transformation Executive at Pick n Pay, said the starting point should remain the shopper. “You’ve got to put the customer at the heart of this.” He added that customer reach needs to be supported by data, transparency and measurable outcomes if businesses are to understand whether investment is genuinely delivering value.
Innovation cannot compensate for weak execution
Alongside discussions on artificial intelligence, digital commerce and retail media, another consistent message was that innovation needs to strengthen retail fundamentals rather than distract from them.
Rudi Nienaber, Data and Technology Executive at Smollan, cautioned businesses against developing an AI strategy independently of their wider commercial objectives. “Don’t start with an AI strategy; start with your business strategy.“
Cotton made a similar point from an operational perspective. “The fundamentals still apply.” Before businesses layer on new technology or digital experiences, they still need to be able to accurately describe and price products, take payment and deliver orders on time and in full.
Michael Smollan, Chief Brand Experience Officer at Smollan, extended the argument to the relationship between marketing and sales, saying that creating demand and making a product easy to purchase can no longer be treated as separate activities. “Getting chosen and getting bought are one job, not two departments.“
For Slabber, the implication is that businesses need to combine a broader view of where growth may emerge with much closer observation of what is happening in the market. “In addition to looking at global examples, I really recommend all the stakeholders to do trade visits, walk the trade, immerse themselves in the trade, because that’s where you’ll see these very interesting shifts in dynamics,” she said.
As traditional channel boundaries continue to loosen, the growth opportunity for FMCG businesses is expanding – but so is the competitive field. The businesses best placed to capture those pockets of growth will be those which identify the right customer opportunity, execute against it consistently and adapt as the market continues to shift.
Prithivan Pillay, Head of Client Value Propositions at Nedbank Business and Commercial Banking had this to say about the event. “Trade Intelligence delivered an exceptionally valuable programme, bringing together the insights, perspectives and conversations that matter to the FMCG retail sector. As one of the industry’s most respected platforms, the conference provides an important opportunity to engage with the challenges and opportunities shaping the sector. We are proud of our ongoing partnership with Trade Intelligence, which allows us to contribute to these meaningful conversations.”