Eskom, South Africa’s state-owned power utility, has announced its determination to prevent Stage 4 loadshedding during the upcoming summer months. To achieve this goal, Eskom plans to limit unplanned breakdowns to 14,500 MW, while implementing scheduled outages of approximately 7,000 MW as part of its high-maintenance season. The addition of 2,880 MW from the Kusile power stations is expected to play a crucial role in narrowing the supply-demand gap and creating room for maintenance activities.
- Eskom aims to reduce reliance on costly OCGTs, which were extensively utilized during the winter to mitigate the impact of loadshedding.
- Eskom has spent R11.9 billion since April 1 to operate its own OCGT plants, Ankerlig and Gourikwa, against a budget of R30 billion for both its plants and private OCGT facilities.
- Unit 2 will be taken out of service in early November, following the resumption of operations by Unit 1 on November 3. The fate of Koeberg’s Long-Term Operation license and the potential separation of Unit 1 and Unit 2 licenses remain uncertain.
- Eskom is awaiting environmental approvals to commission Unit 3 at Kusile. The revised return-to-service schedule targets October 14.
- Eskom anticipates securing 1,500 MW from the Tutuka station, which operated with only one unit for most of winter.
- Eskom reports solid progress in the rehabilitation of these power stations, but attention is still required at Kendal.
- Should breakdowns remain below 14,500 MW, loadshedding is estimated to occur for 116 days until the end of March, with the intensity restricted to Stage 4 or below. Higher breakdown levels could result in more loadshedding days, reaching up to 211 days with intensity ranging from Stage 5 to Stage 7.