Exxaro Resources expects its coal production and sales volumes for the 2025 financial year to land comfortably within guidance, signalling operational stability despite a volatile global backdrop. Total coal product and sales volumes are forecast to match the prior year, within the range of 38.9 million to 42.8 million tonnes, while export sales are projected to align with the guided range of 6.5 million to 7.2 million tonnes, reinforcing the group’s confidence in its core operations.
The outlook reflects a year shaped by shifting global trade dynamics and uneven investor sentiment. Management has pointed to heightened market volatility following policy changes in the United States, which have contributed to inflationary pressures and dampened confidence across commodity markets. According to Bloomberg, these dynamics have weighed on global growth expectations and introduced fresh uncertainty across energy and metals value chains.
Against this backdrop, coal prices are expected to trend lower. The API4 Richards Bay benchmark is forecast to average $89 per tonne in 2025, down sharply from $105 per tonne in 2024, reflecting softer demand and ample global supply. Iron ore prices are expected to show a similar pattern, with average prices near $100 per dry metric tonne, compared with $109 previously, largely due to subdued Chinese demand and rising supply.
Looking into early 2026, Exxaro anticipates fragile global economic momentum, with commodity markets facing mixed signals. Adequate thermal coal and gas inventories, combined with a milder northern hemisphere winter, have reduced the likelihood of seasonal price spikes. However, potential supply constraints linked to lower nuclear availability in South Korea, reduced Colombian output and uncertainty around US exports could provide partial support to prices.
Longer-term market dynamics are being shaped by structural shifts. China and India are continuing to prioritise domestic coal production while accelerating renewable energy deployment, trends that are altering traditional trade flows. As reported by IEA, global electrification and energy transition policies are reshaping demand patterns, even as thermal coal remains critical for energy security in many emerging markets.
Domestically, Exxaro sees scope for firmer demand if South Africa’s economic recovery gains traction. Improved performance at Eskom and gradual progress in resolving operational bottlenecks could support coal offtake, although infrastructure constraints remain a structural challenge. In iron ore, increased supply from projects such as Guinea’s Simandou mine is expected to heighten competition amid muted Chinese demand.
Strategically, the group continues to optimise its portfolio and position for future growth. Exxaro has completed the sale of its FerroAlloys business and is advancing acquisitions in manganese, reinforcing its ambitions in energy transition metals. With cost pressures and logistics challenges likely to persist, management believes disciplined cost control and efficiency gains across the value chain will be central to sustaining performance in an increasingly complex operating environment.