Sasol has become the best-performing emerging-market stock outside Asia this year. The petrochemicals group has gained almost 120% in dollar terms in 2026, on top of a 45% rise last year, and is on track for its strongest annual return since at least 1991.
The rally follows a long slide. Between June 2022 and April 2025, years of rising debt and project delays wiped 85% off the company’s market value.
The recovery has been driven by the oil shock that followed the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 28 February, after US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Brent crude neared $90 (R1,494) a barrel in August.
| Sasol: FY2026 scorecard (year to 30 June) | |
|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | R61bn (+17%) |
| Headline earnings per share | R38.31 (+9%) |
| Cash generated by operations | R56.7bn (+22%) |
| Net debt, excluding leases | $3.3bn (R54.8bn), down 11% |
| Dividend threshold (net debt) | Below $3bn (R49.8bn) |
| Share price, 5 October 2026 | About R231.60 |
Source: Bloomberg
Sasol’s advantage lies in its feedstock. Most of its fuel comes from coal it mines itself and converts at Secunda using coal-to-liquids technology, which limits its exposure to Middle East crude. Adrian Hammond, executive director at SBG Securities, said that while conventional refiners pay about $100 (R1,660) a barrel for crude, Sasol’s feedstock costs a fraction of that and its products still sell at market prices.
Operations have also improved. Secunda’s synthetic fuel output reached a five-year high in the 2026 financial year, and the group ran without interruption through the Hormuz disruption. Sales volumes rose 4%, average Brent prices were 7% higher and refining margins more than doubled. A stronger rand and the absence of a once-off Transnet settlement from the previous year partly offset these gains.
The balance sheet is the main focus. Net debt is at its lowest in a decade, and liquidity stands at about $5bn (R83bn) after bond exchanges that pushed out maturities. Sasol has said it will resume dividends only once net debt is sustainably below $3bn. Shareholders last received a final dividend in September 2023.
Analysts are divided on how much further the shares can run. Hammond expects the price to nearly double to R450 over the next year. He argues that many local investors have overlooked the stock and that a re-rating could be swift once sentiment shifts.
HSBC’s global head of energy and materials research, Sriharsha Pappu, has a buy rating and a R260 target, but warned that a fall in oil prices could halt the rally. Aeysha Samsodien, a portfolio manager at M&G Investments, said conditions still favour Sasol and that sustained high oil prices would allow it to keep cutting debt.
Of the analysts tracked by Bloomberg, four rate the stock a buy, five a hold and two a sell, with an average target of R238.01, close to the current price.
Risks remain beyond the oil price. Sasol impaired R16.8bn in the year, including R7.7bn on the Secunda liquid fuels refinery. It also guided capital spending of R23bn to R26bn for the 2027 financial year, above the R21bn spent in 2026. Since the start of the second quarter, the shares have gained more than 43%, while the JSE benchmark index has slipped 1.9%.