South Africa’s mining sector is experiencing growth, although it has not yet returned to pre-Covid production levels. According to the Minerals Council South Africa, mining production increased by 1% month-on-month in July 2025, marking five consecutive months of growth. The country’s economy also showed slight recovery, with a GDP growth of 0.8% quarter-on-quarter. Mining specifically grew by 3.7% in this period, contributing 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025.
This positive trend is evident year-on-year as well, with July seeing production rise by 4.4% compared to the same month in the previous year. The Minerals Council noted that while these figures are encouraging, they remain below the levels seen in 2019, prior to the pandemic. The council highlighted South Africa’s rich mineral diversity and expertise, suggesting that reforms in the electricity supply and rail sectors are steps toward unlocking further potential. It called for additional policy changes to incentivise exploration.
The month-on-month growth in mining production was supported by increases in gold (0.9%), iron ore (5.1%), copper (4%), and manganese (8.9%). However, some sectors experienced declines, including chrome (-1.7%), PGMs (-0.3%), nickel (-23.8%), diamonds (-2.3%), and coal (-1.3%). Year-on-year comparisons showed increases in iron ore (12.2%), chrome (1.8%), PGMs (6.2%), diamonds (5.9%), and coal (1.4%), while gold (-0.4%), copper (-6.7%), manganese (-3.3%), and nickel (-8.7%) saw contractions.
The month-on-month performance can be attributed to both domestic and global factors. Domestically, reduced loadshedding from improved power supply stability allowed mines to operate closer to full capacity, particularly in energy-intensive sectors such as platinum and gold. Additionally, improved weather conditions helped normalise production after disruptions earlier in the year.
Globally, strong demand from China and India, especially for industrial and automotive applications, played a significant role. Furthermore, global buyers increased their inventories in anticipation of impending US tariffs. The structural supply deficit of PGMs, particularly platinum, is also noteworthy, with expected deficits nearing one million ounces in 2025.
Given the growth observed in July, the mining sector is projected to increase by approximately 1% in the third quarter of 2025. On a quarterly basis, mining production rose by 4.2% in the second quarter. However, year-to-date production from January to July 2025 has declined by 1.9% compared to the same period in 2024.
Despite a significant decline of 14.2% in June 2025 year-on-year, total mineral sales saw a slight increase of 2.2% in July, reaching R73.4 billion. PGMs (24.8%), iron ore (20.5%), and copper (19.7%) led the commodities with notable increases, while sales earnings in gold (-8.7%), manganese (-30.9%), nickel (-15.5%), and coal (-1.1%) all dropped.